FTSE 100 Up, FTSE 250 Down Amidst Oil Price Surge

Midday Wednesday 4 March: • FTSE 100: 10,556 - up 72 points (+0.69%) • FTSE 250: 22,785 - down 2.7% • Oil (WTI): $75.36/barrel - up 19% in one month • Brent crude: $77.82/barrel The headline index is recovering. The smaller companies index is still falling hard.

Three Reasons for the Bounce Three things are driving the FTSE 100 higher despite the news: • The White House announced a phased plan to mitigate the oil price spike • After a -2.75% fall yesterday, a partial bounce is technically normal • BP and Shell are in the FTSE 100

The Bad News Has Not Gone Away To be clear about what happened this morning: • Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed complete control of the Strait of Hormuz • Shipping giants have suspended all operations through the Strait • Iran has vowed to fire on any vessel attempting

The Three Scenarios So what happens next? Three honest possibilities: • Genuine recovery - White House plan works, oil eases, rate cut hopes return, FTSE 100 back to 10,900+ within weeks • Dead cat bounce - one-day recovery in a continuing sell-off, markets fall again

The FTSE 100 vs FTSE 250 Split This is why the FTSE 250 number matters more right now. • FTSE 100 - global giants, energy majors, dollar earners - partial insulation from UK pain • FTSE 250 - UK-focused, domestic revenues, rate-sensitive - down 2.7% today The FTSE 250 is a

The SIPP Lesson For long-term SIPP investors the midday paradox does not change the strategy: • £6.2bn in FTSE 100 dividends land this month regardless of the index level • Quality companies with strong balance sheets have survived every shock in the table • The FTSE 100

If this kind of daily market analysis is useful, follow @SIPPAdvisorUK. • FTSE 100 market updates • UK dividend stock analysis • SIPP investing for long-term wealth No politics. No noise. Just the numbers that matter to your pension. #FTSE100 #SIPP #UKInvesting